For the longest time I’ve considered the Dallas Mavericks loss to Miami in the 2006 NBA Finals the most painful professional sports moment of my life. Until now. The Texas Rangers were one strike away from winning the World Series twice, but the St. Louis Cardinals just wouldn’t go away. The Rangers made plenty of mistakes, but the Cardinals did plenty right. I don’t have the words to describe my feelings, so I’ll not try.
As you know, I have three hats — a Longhorns hat, a Rangers hat and a Mavs hat — and despite the agony of last week my teams are on a pretty good run. The Mavs are the reigning champs (after what seems to have been the last ever NBA season), the Rangers are back-to-back American League Champions, and the Longhorns have already matched their win total from 2010 with five games to play and need only one more to get to a bowl game. It could be worse — I could be a D/FW-born Aggie. Not a good weekend for the soon-to-be SEC Champs.
This will pass and I will appreciate the season the Rangers had, but I’m not there yet. Maybe. Or it will bother me like the 2006 Mavs and it will take a World Series ring to erase it. My burden to bare, not yours, right?
So let’s talk something we all agree on- Texas Longhorns football. The red and black of Tech will descend on Austin for a late breakfast kickoff, so let’s get on with it.
TEXAS 43 KANSAS O
Let me say this first: I really like Turner Gill. I liked him when he was a college player, I loved what he did at Buffalo and I thought he was the right choice for Nebraska when they decided to hire the lovable Bo Pelini. The kids that play for Kansas are Division I athletes at a BCS conference school, which means a lot. They go to parties, bars, etc… and they are D-I football players, which means all the trappings of that come with it. There are hundreds of players in college now that aren’t good enough to be playing at a school like Kansas, and thousands more that were never good enough to be ignored by a place like Kansas. With that being said, this is one of the worst football teams I have ever seen with my own eyes. The numbers said the defense and special teams were awful but the offense was not, but, having watched them play, the offense looked just as bad as the other units. Surely Texas had a lot to do with that, but I didn’t see anything from anyone that would give me cause for optimism on the Kansas football team. Usually a bad team has some talent, like a great receiver, kick return man, a punter, … something. Not Kansas. They were just awful.
Honestly they were so bad that I’m going to do something I’ve done only once in the 10+ years I’ve been covering the Texas football team: I’m not going to grade it. Texas played Sam Houston State in 2006 and I refuse to write about D1 teams playing 1-AA teams, so I did not. This was an awful team and the Horns did exactly what they were supposed to do: hammer them into the ground from the start. I give Texas plenty of credit for handling their business and doing so convincingly and I like that the bench was emptied in a blowout, but other than that there isn’t much to take from this game.
Well done, Horns, take this confidence boost into Tech.
TEXAS TECH (5-3/2-3) @ No.25 TEXAS (5-2/2-2)
Saturday, November 5th
11 am
F/X
So weird this game is at 11 am and not 6 or 7? It seems the big networks love Texas and Tech playing at night, but I guess the star power is not as bright as it was the last few years. So here we are, with a late morning kick. I feel sorry for those Tech kids, because this might as well be at dawn for them. Not my problem, though. Both teams need one more win to get to bowl eligibility and they come in this week on completely different ends of the momentum spectrum. Texas had a record-breaking defensive performance against Kansas, and Tech was violently slammed back to earth by Iowa State last week after their stunning upset of ou in Norman. So how does this go? Let’s take a look.
TECH
As I just mentioned above — four lines up … see? — Tech was one of the hottest teams in the land last week after their monster win at oklahoma, shooting up the polls and scaring the daylights out of Texas fans. They followed that up with a miserable effort at home against Iowa State, who blew them out in Lubbock, 41-7, in a game where Tech threw for only 171 yards and were worked over by a redshirt freshman quarterback starting his first game.
I expect a better mental effort from Tech this week, but they have to be in a fragile state and need good things to happen early for them. Let’s see what they plan to do.
Offense
Mike Leach is long gone but you wouldn’t know it looking at their numbers. They have the eighth-ranked offense in the nation, averaging 508 yards per game. And just like with Leach, almost all of it is through the air. Tech averages 359.63 yards per game passing, making it the fifth best passing offense in the nation. They don’t run nearly as much as they throw but still average 148 ypg rushing. It’s a new staff and new personnel, but Tech needs to throw to be successful.
The trigger man is Seth Doege. The 6-foot-1, 200-pound junior was all set to be the next great Texas high school quarterback, but two knee injuries made him an afterthought to most of the big boys. He played some last year in the revolving door at qb with Taylor Potts and Steven Sheffield and now has the keys all to himself. On the season he has 2,779 yards, throwing 22 touchdown passes and six interceptions. He is completing 67% of his passes and at times has shown that ability that had everyone so excited when he was in high school. Ask ou. But then he’ll have that 171-yard, two-interception, no-touchdown day he had against Iowa State. He’s still learning and still striving for consistency. He’s a good athlete and doesn’t run a lot, but he did have 91 yards rushing against Nevada and has three touchdowns on the season. He’s more slippery than mobile and will slide out of the pocket and buy his receivers time. He makes good decisions with the ball, or at least he did until last week, and he can be very dangerous when given the chance. Again, ask ou. He’s got talent and if Texas has trouble in coverage, he’ll shred them.
Doege will spread the ball around to several guys as Tech always does, but his favorite two targets are Alex Torres and Eric Ward. The 6-foot-1, 194-pound junior Torres is the veteran of the group and knows where to be and when to be there. He has great hands and good speed, leading the team in yards receiving with 510 yards on 41 catches with four scores. Sophomore Eric Stephens isn’t as technically sound as Torres, but he’s crazy athletic and very fast. At 6-feet, 201 pounds he’s built like a running back but excels outside, leading the team with eight td receptions and 49 receptions and is second only to Torres in receiving yards with 492. They will move both around, lining them in the slot and outside, to get match-ups and exploit holes in coverages. Watch for Torres on the bubble screen, where he torched the sooners two weeks ago. It isn’t just those two: Adam James (yep, that Adam James) gets plenty of looks from the tight end spot and other receivers like Austin Zouzalik, Tramain Swindell, and Jacoby Franks will see plenty of balls coming their way; however, the bread gets buttered with Doege finding Torres and Ward.
Tech lost much underrated running back Eric Stephens to a season-ending injury against A&M, and in his place has stepped senior Aaron Crawford and true freshman DeAndre Washington. Together they have about half the production of Stephens, who was averaging 114 ypg rushing with eight scores. Washington and Crawford average about 63 ypg rushing with four scores. See? About half. To be fair to them, Tech has obviously shifted away from the running game with the loss of Stephens; but don’t sleep on Crawford and Washington. Crawford has excellent size at 5-foot-10, 211 pounds and Washington is very quick. Go back and watch how devastating the draw play was for them against ou and you’ll see what I mean. Running the ball isn’t a priority, but they can do it well at times.
One thing you’ll notice about Tommy Tuberville’s offense is the boys up front don’t have those crazy splits like they have in the past. But like in the past, they are excellent pass blockers and, like in the past, they don’t excel at run blocking. I don’t see many all-star candidates, but I did see a guard move over to center for the first time ever against the No.1 team in the nation on the road and fight his tail off to help his team win. Tech doesn’t ask their o-line to physically maul people too often; instead they use formations and play calling to clear out space for running backs and create space for receivers. The offensive line doesn’t have the star power it has had in the past (I see no Mohawks or head tattoos) but they are athletic, strong and they do their jobs very well; at least they did until last week.
Tech has seen film on Texas and they know what has worked for ou and Oklahoma State. You spread Texas out and hit them right up the middle with the running game, forcing the lb’s and safeties to make tackles in space, which they did not do well in those two games. They will see if they still struggle with that. They are also going to bubble screen and draw Texas to death, just like they did against ou, and use rub routes (two receivers running side by side where one cuts and the other “rubs” the defender off, freeing him up) and fly routes to try and confuse the young Texas secondary and free up receivers downfield. They will go up tempo and use the short, controlled passing game like the running game, throwing dump off and swing passes to the backs as often as running them up the middle. In short, they are going to run the Tech offense you’ve seen the last two years. The question is can Texas slow them down enough to get a win? The answer is yes because …
Defense
… Tech doesn’t stop the run well. At all. They allow 225 yards per game on the ground and have given up 17 rushing touchdowns, which is second only to Kansas’ 31. They are second only to Texas in pass defense in the league, allowing only 210 yards per game through the air, but they have allowed 13 touchdown passes on the season. That tells me teams are running on them and when they load up to stop that run, the opponents are burning them for touchdown passes as their receivers get behind them. With the way Texas runs the ball, the play-action pass could be disastrous if they over commit to the run.
Up front they are led by Scott Smith, who Texas made famous last year with all the tipped interceptions. They have talent, as you clearly saw against ou when they kept the sooner rushing game in check, but last week they gave up 368 yards rushing to Iowa State, who had three 100-yard rushers in the game. These guys look the part, but so far they haven’t been able to slow anyone down consistently on the ground. This is not the week you want to play a team as run-heavy as Texas.
They run a 4-2-5, meaning only two linebackers play and the starters are Sam Eguavoen and Daniel Cobb. Both are athletic and in there to make plays behind the line of scrimmage as much as defend the pass, using their speed to get behind the line of scrimmage. On the season, the two have 43 tackles and 6.5 for loss. When they need to get more physical, they will bring in 6-foot-1, 237-pound sophomore Cqulin Hubert, who seems to be the most physical of the bunch with 31 tackles on the year, including 5.5 for loss. Also his name is “Cqulin,” which is outstanding. The front six for Tech have some talent, but so far this year they haven’t shown the ability to take over a game.
The Tech secondary is statistically good, but I just don’t know. Again, monster win against ou, but I saw a lot of dropped passes and bad decisions from the sooner passing game and they still scored 38 points. They are solid at safety with DJ Johnson and Cody Davis, who have combined for almost 90 tackles. Davis is very active and at 6-foot-2, 200 pounds, he is essentially a third linebacker on the field. Johnson will roam the back, playing cover two and watching the quarterback’s eyes, which he’s done well, evidenced by his two interceptions this year. Tech took a big hit last week when Terrance Bulllitt suffered a dislocated shoulder against Iowa State. He’s likely out for a while, if not for the year, and his physical presence will be missed, especially in the run game although his back up played well against Iowa State. Tre Porter is the best corner on the team and will likely get the task of covering Jaxon Shipley, but I don’t think things are as settled on the other side. They have some big, bruising bodies in the secondary that will lay a lick and have done a solid job in coverage, but they are asked to do so much in the running game they can be taken advantage of in play action.
It’s very easy to diagnose: Tech is going to load the box to deal with the Texas running game and they are going to play deep cover two over the middle, hoping to pounce on bad David Ash decisions. If they can stop Texas’ running game, they are going to have a good shot at winning this game.
That is not going to happen.
Special Teams
Completely average special teams all across the board. Punter Russell Erxleben (yes, he’s related) averages under 40 yards per punt but does have 10 downed inside the 20. They average seven yards per punt return (although Austin Zouzalik has some serious potential), and they are only 10-14 on field goals. They have allowed a kickoff return for a touchdown while getting very little on their own returns.
Tubbs will take some chances, just like Mike Leach did, and I expect to see a fake and an onside kick on Saturday. Texas is really coming around on specials and Tech is going to have to play over their heads and take some chances to win this phase of the game.
TEXAS
Last week was nice, but this is a dramatic step up in competition and a game that Texas must win if they are truly to take the next step toward their return to the top of the Big 12. We need to see more development from the quarterback and the defensive ends simply must step up. Let’s see what Texas intends to do.
Offense
As easy it is for Tech to diagnose how to stop Texas, it’s just as easy for Texas to see how they win: run the ball. Texas needs to control the clock and run the ball. The Horns lead the league in time of possession and if they can get Whittaker, Brown & Co. going, it moves the chains, controls the tempo and keeps the Tech offense on the sideline. This is an o-line game. The Tech front six is not that impressive, and the Horns have to dominate the line of scrimmage to win this game. I think they can and I think they will.
If it was me, I’d play both qbs this week to keep Tech on their toes. Case McCoy has shown the ability to ad-lib very well when the play breaks down, and I’d sure like to see how that plays out against this Tech defense. Of course, no one asked me what I think, so my guess is you’ll see a lot of David Ash and, regardless of the qb, heavy doses of the running game.
No turnovers this week, Mr. Ash. That was a horrible pass picked off in the end zone against Kansas, and you simply cannot take a 20-yard sack trying to make something happen this week. Smart game management, quick decisions and decisive action should get Texas a lot of points if last week was any indication.
The qb (whoever that may be) has a big game running the ball, Brian Harsin throws in some exotics and the Texas offense looks very good.
Defense
Texas has to get after Doege. Even if they don’t get him down, they need to get in his face and force him into quicker-than-normal decisions and not allow him to get comfortable in the pocket. The defensive line HAS to get to Doege and make some plays if Texas is to win. He cannot be allowed to sit back and pick the secondary apart, and if Texas has to continually blitz to get pressure, it will leave opportunities for big gains for Tech. Pressure from the front four is a must and the front six — Texas will also play a nickel defense this week with the pass-heavy Tech offense — must handle Texas running game. NO LONG RUNS. NO BUSTED RUNNING PLAY ASSIGNMENTS. The Achilles heel of this defense has been the breakdowns that have given up back-breaking long touchdown runs, and that has to stop NOW.
The Texas secondary needs to keep Tech receivers in front of them and not allow any big plays, and they must tackle well in space on those screens and outs. Limit the big plays, Horns, and everything should be OK.
The Texas secondary has played very well this season (ou game aside). I think the conference’s No.1 pass efficiency defense lives up to its billing, limiting Tech’s red zone chances by tightening up when Tech crosses the 50.
Tech is going to make some plays and score some points, but the Texas defense is going to make some plays and score some points, too. I really liked the nobody-has-a-hand-on-the-ground defense I saw at times, particularly Chris Whaley blitzing from the linebacker/safety spot. I see more of that coming this week.
Special Teams
Texas needs to control the Tech special teams and not lose this phase of the game. I think Tech has to win this phase to win the game and as long as Texas can keep it even, things will be good. With that being said, I don’t think it will be even. I expect a big return or a big block to set up Texas with a short field, and I expect Tech to try something fishy that blows up in their faces.
IT’S ON …
I certainly don’t want to diminish anything Texas did last week because a win is a win and the utter domination by the Horns was terrific; but I won’t spend too much time patting them on the back and telling them how awesome they are, because frankly Kansas is a terrible football team. The confidence gained from this win is the big takeaway, and Texas needs to take that confidence and use it to fuel them this week. And you can be sure the Texas staff is not passing out blue ribbons for great plays from Kansas. They will be keeping this guys dialed in, focused and hungry, because any mental lapses from this young Texas team and all the momentum from last week is gone. Ask Tech how they are feeling today as opposed to last week. They will show them what they did right, what they did wrong and every single play from the oklahoma/Tech game to ensure everyone expects Tech’s best effort. I think Tech comes in fired up, but so does Texas, and I like this match up for the Horns a lot.
The Texas ground game should move the chains and, as long as there are good decisions from the quarterback(s) with the football in the passing game, I think Texas scores some points this week. Look for more early-season HarsinWhite offense, with tricks and reverses and whatnot, to keep the defense on their toes. Last week Manny Diaz’s boys had an historic day and now they face a fairly one-dimensional offense at home. I like how this is setting up.
I think it starts coming together for Texas, who takes that next step and gets to 6-2 in a high scoring game.
LAST WEEK IN THE BIG 12
BAYLOR 24 No.3 OKLAHOMA STATE 59
This was Iron Mike vs. Michael Spinx back in the day, with Oklahoma State being Iron Mike. It was 35-0 at halftime and it could have been worse. Okie State is for real, folks.
IOWA STATE 41 TEXAS TECH 7
Ugly. Tech was clearly impressed with themselves after the ou game and their minds were on Austin this weekend, not Iowa State and their redshirt freshman quarterback making his first career start. It was 21-0 before Tech could catch their breath and Iowa State whipped the tar out of Tech. You had Halloween to go nuts this week if that’s any solace, kids.
No. 11 oklahoma 58 No. 10 Kansas State 17
Listen- you can’t start the “Texas! Fight!” chant and get mad at the non-participants if you are leaving the game in the third quarter. I was outside the stadium (just for a second) and heard the unsuccessful cheer starter berating the others exiting. Hard to call people out for their lack of enthusiasm when you are doing the same thing they are. I’m just sayin’…
MISSOURI 38 No. 16 TEXAS A&M 31 OT
SEC football at its best! We didn’t lose that game, we just ran out of time in the first half to get a big enough lead that they couldn’t outscore us in the second half like everyone else. But SEC! We both get to chant it, we … What? What do you mean they haven’t joined yet? But SEC! SEC? Whoop! Level playing field! No? They aren’t members? So, now we are winless against the SEC and SEC prospective teams? Hey, though, guess what! WE can play in the Cotton Bowl as the SEC team! Whoop! Not at all a bad idea to leave this conference! Certainly not emotional and reactionary! All Texas’ fault! Scared to play us! Whoop!
THIS WEEK IN THE BIG 12
MISSOURI (4-4/2-3) @ BAYLOR (4-3/1-3) 6 pm FSN
I’m curious to see where Baylor is mentally after that whooping they took. Equally as interesting will be to see how the Pinkels handle success in their second straight trip to the state of Texas. I think Baylor is just too athletic, and history tells me Mizzou will not be as on this week. Bears win, Turtle returns.
KANSAS (2-6/0-4) @ IOWA STATE (4-4/1-4) 11 am FCS
All of the sudden the Iowa State Cyclones are two wins away from bowl eligibility and you can go ahead and assume after about 3 pm on Saturday they will be one win away. Good for you, Cyclones.
No.19 KANSAS STATE (7-1/4-1) @ No. 4 OKLAHOMA ST. (8-0/5-0) 7 pm ABC
I think The Purple gets another rude awakening, this time at the hands of the T. Boones. Okie State rolls and moves up to No. 2 after the LSU/Alabama game.
TEXAS A&M (5-3/3-2) @ No. 7 oklahoma (7-1/4-1) 2:30 pm ABC
So who you got in the LSU/Alabama game? I think you have to go with Bama at home, but Leslie is so insane that home field can’t mean much, can it? I can’t wait to watch. |
