It’s game week. IT’S GAME WEEK. Every single year I say “I can’t believe the season is here!” I know, right? So dumb. After so many years you’d think I’d either A:) calm down, B:) realize that the end of summer is the beginning of football season or C:) be adult enough and smart enough to not dork out for something that happens the same time every year. Guess what? I CAN’T BELIEVE THE SEASON IS HERE! The college football season officially kicks off Thursday night at 5 pm when Louisville and the mighty Racers of Murray State face off on ESPNU. What an awful game, but I’m watching it, you can bet on it.
And, of course, the Longhorns get it going on Saturday with the Rice Owls at 7 pm on the Longhorn Network. About that network- I’d try and find a radio or a ticket to the game just in case. You know, better to be safe. And who doesn’t want to be neck-deep in the crowds, the enthusiasm and the atmosphere of the first game day of the new-look Longhorns? Plus you surely want to see what the Mob has in store for the Longhorn Network and the Texas fans, right? Even if it’s just in the pre-game, it’ll still be fun to watch. I’ll be bouncing around everywhere- Scholz’s, Bevo Boulevard, the Texas Exes, the End Zone Club, possibly even a trip to the north side and Posse East. I can’t wait.
The Horns made it through the weekend unscathed and it’s time to get into the breakdown of Texas vs. Rice. I am so excited! I bet I don’t sleep again this week. On with it.
Game One
Rice Owls @ No. 24 TEXAS
Saturday, September 3rd
7 pm
Longhorn Network
My man David Bailiff brings the Rice Owls to town and I have to think he has to be wondering what, exactly, he will be seeing from these Texas Longhorns. Coach B has quite the dilemma, because there is no book on Texas. Last year it was bubble screens and zone blocking and disciplined pressure. Now both of those coordinators are gone and in comes the new staff. I suppose you could watch tape of Mississippi State’s defense or Boise State’s offense from last year, but with a different head coach, different personnel and different circumstances, you might not get anything out of it. I feel for you, Coach B, because you are going to be the film that everyone from now on is watching to get a handle on what Texas is going to do. That notwithstanding, the Owls played Texas very well last year and they aren’t going to come in intimidated by the Texas Longhorns. The Owls will be loose and play with no fear. The question is will that work? Not a chance.
Here is what I see Rice and Texas doing.
Rice
Offense
The Owls are bringing in a decent offense that can move the ball well on the ground. They averaged 263 yards per game rushing in the last five games, running the ball nearly 50 times a game and averaging 5.5 yards per carry while scoring 14 touchdowns. On the season they ranked 51st nationally in rushing offense, averaging 159 ypg on the season. Why the 100-yard-per-game increase in the second half of the year? They made the Wildcat their base offense, alternating their tailbacks and their athletic quarterback behind center. If you aren’t familiar, the “Wildcat” formation is when a tailback (or any excellent athlete that isn’t the normal quarterback) lines up at quarterback position and takes the snap. 90% of the time that play is a run, where the “quarterback” uses his athletic ability to find a crease in the defense to exploit or uses his speed to get outside to the corner and get downfield. You’ll see teams run the Wildcat with a pitch man, bring a man in motion and use him on reverse at times and even throw it of it as well. Other than the “quarterback” not being the normal quarterback, the Wildcat to me looks like an old option offense where the quarterback is the primary runner. What Rice does well is mix their tailbacks in at the qb spot to showcase what they do well. The Owls will use as many as five backs and they all bring something a little different to the table, but the bulk of the work will go to three of them. Michigan transfer Sam McGuffie, the junior who led the team in rushing last year with 883 yards, has elite D-1 speed and if he gets to the corner it will hurt. He also has excellent vision, meaning he will find the holes inside as defenses race to cut him off on the sideline. And he likes to jump over people. A lot. YouTube him and you’ll see what I mean. At 6-foot-2, 230 pounds Jeremy Eddington is the short yardage back that isn’t looking for the corner nearly as much; he wants to get up field and use his size to make plays. He’s good at it, too, with a team-high 10 touchdowns last year. I expect you’ll see them both on the field at the same time, with the two alternating at times at the quarterback. This will help keep defenses honest as they must respect what each buy brings to the table. Expect to see redshirt sophomore Turner Petersen as well. The 6-foot-2, 220-pound Petersen isn’t the bulldozer that Eddington is, nor does he have the speed of McGuffie, but he is a more physical than McGuffie and faster than Eddington, which makes him a more all-around threat than the other two. All three are going to play and they will play a lot.
When Rice does go to a traditional line up, it won’t change all that much. Sophomore Taylor McHargue is the starter at quarterback and last season he had 491 yards passing with six touchdowns and an interception and added 151 on the ground with one score. Those aren’t eye-popping numbers, but after winning the starting job as a freshman last year he only played in five games, starting three, after getting injured in week two at North Texas. He’s has a good arm and at 6-foot-1, 205 pounds he’s a decent-sized player that can run well when he has to. Basically, to me, he’s another back in the Wildcat formation, but one that will throw the ball at times. And who will he throw it to, Trey? A very good question.
With their ability to run the ball, the biggest and most obvious weapon when they do throw is the tight end. When teams are keying on the run, a tight end can slide behind the line of scrimmage and get big yards as defense falls for the play-action. Rice has the guys that can do that for them in juniors Luke Wilson and Vance McDonald. The two combined last year to catch 61 balls for 821 yards and 11 touchdowns. They are both good blockers and at 6-foot-5 each, they are a bit of a size mismatch for most linebackers. Look for both of them to see plenty of balls coming their way again this season and I expect them to be as good and as effective as they were last year. I don’t see much from the outside guys as pass-catching threats because Rice uses them primarily as downfield blockers in the running game and McHargue doesn’t have a great deep arm, but the tight ends are good and they can use them well; so long as they can get run the ball to set it up.
The key to just how well they are going to use them, and how well the running game clicks, lays in the hands of the boys up front.
Rice returns four starters up front including three that are multi-year starters. As you might expect from a team that runs the ball so much, these guys are a bit smaller and very athletic. Only freshman guard Ian Gray is massively imposing at 6-foot-8, 340 pounds. The rest are smaller and very experienced and they know where they are expected to be and what to do. The question is will they be able to do it against this talented Texas defensive line on Saturday?
Well, no. These guys are going to hold their own when they get into league play, but this isn’t league play. They are going to have some moments, but not consistently and not nearly enough of them.
I think Rice is going to spread Texas out and attack the vacated middle with their Wildcat. They want to see if the new secondary can tackle. They are going to drag those tight ends over the middle and make the Texas linebackers chase them and they are going to flare their backs out and hit them on screens and dump offs, particularly McGuffie, who had 384 yards receiving and three scores last year. I also see them using play-action to throw deep, testing the young Texas secondary’s cover skills and possibly capitalizing on their desire to stop the run first. But the key to success is going to be up front. If Texas shuts that run game down and forces Rice into obvious throwing situations on 3rd & Long, it’s going to be a very, very long day for Rice. Expect it to be very, very long day for Rice.
Defense
While the Rice offense is going to have their moments because they have some depth and talent in key areas, the defense is going to be hope they can find a way to have some moments. They had no moments in 2010, ranking 107th in total defense (448.33 ypg), 114th in scoring defense (38.50 ppg) and 115th in pass efficiency defense (159.03). Add to that the 101st best defense in turnover margin (-.58) and the 105th best (or 15th worst) sacking team in the land and you get a great big bowl of yuck. David Bailiff replaced his secondary coach and defensive coordinator (both back to Texas State with Fran) and is looking for something, ANYTHING, to improve in 2011. The good news is they can’t be much worse. The bad news is they might not be much better.
New secondary coach Craig Thurmond has four starters returning and all of them have started for multiple years. So the upside is experience, but the downside is all of their experiences are bad because the defense has been horrible. Last year they gave up 34 touchdown passes and 303 yards per game through the air. Many times they seemed mixed up and the coverages were broken and Thurmond intends to change that. Just like Texas, a new coach with new energy and new ideas is going to immediately improve the attitude and the play, so expect them to be better in the secondary; but take that with a grain of salt. A “better” secondary is a far cry from a “good” secondary. They are big and all five (they run a 4-2-5 defense) can tackle pretty well, but they lack in cover skills. That could be a problem when your secondary has trouble covering people and I definitely see them having trouble staying with the speedy Texas wide outs on Saturday, but they are going to win some battles and make some plays, because these guys have had played a lot of football and their experience should give them the edge a few times. But they won’t win enough because…
… I don’t see anything from the Rice front seven that gives me a reason to think they can take over this game and help their secondary out. Senior Scott Solomon is back at defensive end after missing 2010 with a foot injury and he has NFL size at 6-foot-3, 280 pounds and I think he could give the tackles some trouble, but I just don’t see much help up front for him. The Owls had only 14 sacks and 37 total tackles for loss all last season (dead last in college football) and for most of the season the front seven was a complete non-factor. But things should be better with the return of Solomon and new defensive line coach Derrick Johnson. Solomon is going to command attention from the o-line and Jackson will not be cool with such poor play again this fall. I don’t expect them to dominate games, but they will be much more energetic, active and productive this year. It just won’t be this week.
They are going to follow basic principals of football and try and stop the run first. I see a ton of blitzes and stunts for the front seven to try and force bad decisions. They want Garrett Gilbert confused and seeing things that aren’t there and not seeing the disguised coverages that can produce turnovers. They are going to throw everything at him, hoping the offensive line is similar to the past and that Gilbert is similar to the past. If they can get in their heads, they have a chance.
Special Teams
Rice returns both their punter and the kicker and that’s a mixed blessing. Punter Kyle Martens is terrific and will probably be kicking in the NFL next year, averaging 46 yards per punt with 22 of 42 kicks going inside the 20 and 11 going over 50 yards. On the other hand, place kicker Phillip Gaines was 11-17 on field goals and missed three extra points. That not good. The punt return team is good, averaging 11.5 yards per return and they are not-quite-as-good-but-still-good in kick returns, averaging 22.38 yards per return. The coverage allowed 9.6 yards per punt return and they gave up a kickoff return for a touchdown, so to say their coverage is leaky is an understatement.
They do have the ability to pin Texas deep with Martens punting and they certainly have the ability to break something big against the porous Texas punt coverage. Look for every effort to be made to spring their return men loose, because a big return might keep them in this game.
Texas
Offense
I said earlier that Rice wants to get in the offenses’ head and they want to see if the Texas o-line has the same weaknesses as in the past. So let’s nip this nonsense in the bud right now: I expect the Texas offensive line to come out and impose their will on this undermanned Rice front seven. Sure, these guys are D-I athletes, but it’s a new day on the 40 Acres. A new day for the o-line and a bad day for the Rice d-line. All the talk, all the reports of the o-line being different will be on display Saturday and I want to see it with my own eyes. I want to see the new attitude and I want to see the effects of Bennie Wylie and Stacy Searels on these guys. I don’t expect a mistake-free game, but I expect a dominant and energetic effort from the hogs on Saturday night and I expect to see Rice Owls on their backs looking at the Austin sky as the running backs get downfield.
If they do what I think they will do, the Horns are going to be running the ball. A lot. I see Whittaker, Johnson, Bergeron and Brown (and sprinkles of D.J. Monroe) getting plenty of carries and having plenty of success. I think that success on the ground will force Rice to commit more men to playing the run, opening up opportunities for Mike Davis, Jaxon Shipley and John Harris and the tight ends in the passing game. Oh, the tight ends. How I have missed you, dear friends. Blaine Irby and D.J. Grant should have big games (Irby returning against Rice is nice, isn’t it?) I see Gilbert playing off the success of the running game and having success, but I don’t know how much Texas throws if they are able to run the ball like I think they will. But that’s the beauty of this season, you don’t know what to expect from anything.
Defense
Stop the run. The Rice offense is predicated on running the ball and most of the success in their passing game comes from their ability to establish the run. If they can get that Wildcat clicking, the play-action opens their big tight ends in the middle of the field. When they are in an obvious passing down, this o-line is going to have trouble with the Texas ends. I think they are going to have trouble with the Texas ends anyway, because Jackson Jeffcoat and Alex Okafor are dynamite and the Rice tackles are going to be overmatched. I want to see how Texas handles the big bruiser Eddington up the middle, because if there is a concern about this unit it’s going to be handling the power running game between the tackles. I think Keenan Robinson is up to the task this week and Rice is going to struggle to find room running the ball.
And that will be bad for the Rice Owls. McHargue is accurate, but probably not spot-on when he’s getting planted on his ear every other play. I see Texas forcing some turnovers and someone takes one back for six. Who’s your horse? I’ll go with Adrian Phillips.
The Texas defense is going to carry the day and the defensive ends will be leading the charge.
Special Teams
Texas is solid with Justin Tucker handling the kicking, but I wish someone would come up and take the punting job. Will Russ? David Ash? Someone please. It won’t be a big deal this week, but a fresher Tucker will be necessary later in the season.
Texas needs excellent coverage. They can’t for a second give Rice a reason to believe or hope that they are going to compete in this game, meaning they cannot allow a big return to set up the Owls offense. Special teams are key in upsets and Texas must win the battle of specials to keep that from happening.
Expect to see Jaxon Shipley on punt returns. Anyone think D.J. Monroe makes a special teams statement on a kickoff?
In Conclusion:
I can’t wait. I can’t wait to see what formations the offense runs, the defense runs and who blitzes from where. I can’t wait to see the much ballyhooed freshmen. I can’t wait to see Blaine Irby playing again. I can’t wait to see the fans, the field, the game and the plays. I can’t wait for pretty much all of it.
I think Texas wins in convincing fashion. If they can shut down the Rice run, the Owls will be one-dimensional and their offensive line is going to be on skates against the Texas pass rush. I think Texas is going to be able to establish the run and will dictate tempo all day.
But you don’t know, do you? It’s all theoretical at this point. What I want most of all is a win. After last season I will not assume anything and I will not take wins for granted; if Texas wins by 1 or 51 I’ll enjoy it. The first priority is a win, the second priority is a convincing, pretty win.
I think Texas gets them both.
This Week in the Big 12
I don’t talk about division I teams playing I-AA teams. I think it should be outlawed. They don’t have the same number of scholarships available (21 less) and they don’t have the same prestige to attract top talent like the 1-A schools do. And with 120 division I teams out there, you can’t tell me there isn’t a Western Kentucky or a New Mexico State that won’t take someone’s check. It bothers me if you can’t tell, so I will not comment on their games.
Friday, September 2nd
No. 14 TCU Horned Frogs @ BAYLOR 7 pm ESPN
The first interesting game of the week. Baylor has a ton of talent coming back on offense and the TCU Horned Frogs have crossed over into the realm of a power team. Are the Frogs ready to be the big draw on the road? They return only one starter on the offensive line and quarterback Andy Dalton is now a Cincinnati Bengal. Baylor lost some NFL talent as well and only returns five starters on defense. That’s a lot of holes and huge leadership voids to fill on both sides of the ball. Defensively are the Horned Frogs ready to deal with Robert Griffin? The Bears bring eight starters back on offense and TCU returns the majority of their defense, but they didn’t have to deal with a guy like RGIII very often. I think this is a highly entertaining game and I’ll call my shot- Baylor upsets TCU with the big win in Waco. Why not?
Saturday, September 3rd
Miami (OH) RedHawks @ No. 21 MISSOURI 11 am FSN
The James Franklin Era begins in Columbia. The Tigers begin their life after Gabbert with Miami and the Mizzou defense is going to shred the pass-happy RedHawks. I expect to see lots of sacks and lots of pressure from Missouri, giving Franklin (a Dallas native) short fields for quick touchdowns.
Louisiana Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns @ No. 8 OKLAHOMA STATE 6 pm FCS
Oh, my. This is going to be UGLY. The only interesting thing will be what the Pokes are wearing as they unveil their Oregony-like fall fashion line. Gundy will score 100 if he can to send a message to the rest of the league and the nation they are for real.
McNeese State (I-AA team) @ KANSAS 6 pm
Eastern Kentucky (I-AA team) @ KANSAS STATE 6 pm
Northern Iowa (I-AA team) @ IOWA STATE 6 pm
Texas State (I-AA team) @ TEXAS TECH 6 pm
Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ No.1 oklahoma 7 pm F/X
You know what I really like on F/X? I like Archer. It’s really mean, offensive and over the top and absolutely hilarious. My friends and I quote it all the time. I highly recommend it if you are over 18 and you think mean things are funny.
Sunday, September 4th
SMU Mustangs @ No.9 TEXAS A&M 6:30 pm FSN
I’ve seen ESPN put A&M on upset alert and I’ve seen some internet messiahs call their shot for an SMU upset. The Ags are loaded with talent and expectations and all you hear about right now is their imminent departure from the Big 12 for the … SEC? Yeah? Probably? Lots of distractions around the Aggies right now and you can be sure June Jones and the SMU Mustangs are not the least bit concerned or afraid of mighty Kyle Field. The Mustangs can move the ball, the problem is can they stop anyone? No they cannot. A&M is going to win this game, but it’s going to be a bit of a shootout. Ags win, but not as easily as they want to. SEC! SEC! S… We still can’t say it? Can we? Yes?
Notes coming Friday and I’ll see you guys Saturday. |
